Bibliographie sélective OHADA

Historical development. Five W of CESL. Common European sales law.

Though the strategic importance of regional economic integration to multinational companies (MNC) has been researched extensively internationally, this concept has not been studied in South Africa. In fact, there is a growing nostalgia that with the South African Development Community (SADC) moving towards its set macroeconomic convergence targets; regional economic integration eventually leads to macroeconomic stabilisation. This ultimately becomes the root of growth in a region that has been severely affected by globalisation, financial crises, increasing government debt and budget deficit problems. This study, hence, tries to find out how the critical decisions of South African MNCs are made when operating within regional markets. Consequently, statistical econometric models were developed to test time-series data from 1980-2011 using the best (most efficient) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) ordinary least square regression technique. An analysis was then done to investigate how South African firms have been able to gain maximum benefits by adopting the SADC as its major trading bloc in Africa. The study’s findings showed that the major barriers that impede MNCs of South African origin from penetrating these markets were custom duties, direct and indirect tariffs. It was observed that this would only be reduced by regional integration. Determined to critically interrogate the problems detailed in this research, three hypotheses were tested, analysed and subsequent interpretation of the findings revealed that South African MNCs contribute positively to regional economic growth and investment in the SADC. Furthermore, the study found out that although these factors were important, they were not the only variables that stimulated the competitiveness of South African MNCs in the SADC region. The literature review sections of this study found that the adoption of strategic management initiatives by MNCs improved the operation of transnational companies in South Africa. A comparison between the value of South African MNCs, as well as, other explanatory variables, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both South Africa and the SADC using time series data for the period 1980-2011 indicated that there was a positive relationship between the contribution of MNCs to South Africa’s economy and the GDP of both South Africa and the SADC. This proved that there is a significant link between MNC growth and national/regional productivity. In conclusion, the study established that the findings of the literature review were theoretically in sync with the empirical analysis. Also, the outcome of this study concurred with the findings of similar research. In essence, regional trade arrangements are an increasingly important element of the global trade environment, of which the move by South Africa’s MNCs to operate in the SADC market was a positive one. Finally, the study found out that for these firms to be successful in the international business arena, business management decisions need to be made, only after a detailed strategic analysis of the significance of regional economic integration is considered. This integrative framework certainly determines the operational efficiency, survival and profitability of most MNCs that operate within the region.

Il a été longuement discuté de savoir si le système d'arbitrage est applicable pour régler les litiges administratifs qui concernent certains contrats administratifs ou d’autres sans rapport avec le contrat administratif. Dans cette thèse, les trois questions spécifiques sont analysées tour à tour : (1) Est-il possible pour un arbitre ou un tribunal arbitral de trancher des questions relevant du droit administratif? (2) Y a-t-il, ou devrait-il y avoir, des limitations à l'autorité des arbitres et des tribunaux arbitraux? (3) Enfin, après la délivrance d'une sentence arbitrale, quel rôle devrait jouer l'État dans la phase de contrôle judiciaire? La première question concerne l'arbitrabilité et a été discutée dans la première partie (FIRST PART: ARBITRABILITY). La deuxième question a été discutée dans la deuxième partie (SECOND PART: PARTICULAR QUESTIONS OF ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS IN ARBITRATION PROCEDURE). Enfin, sur la dernière question a fait l’objet d’une troisième partie (THIRD PART: JUDICIAL REVIEW AND EXECUTION OF ARBITRATION AWARD). Dans cette thèse, nous avons comparé les systèmes de quatre pays (Canada, Chine, France, Taïwan). En conclusion, nous pouvons donc conclure que l’évolution de la conception du contrat administratif implique de nombreux aspects, y compris les aspects juridiques, économiques, politiques et même culturels. Le développement de la fonction de contentieux administratif, comme ‘’subjectivement orienté" ou "objectivement orienté" aura une incidence sur l'acceptation de l'arbitrage en matière administrative. Dans l'ensemble, l'arbitrage sera plus acceptable dans les systèmes dont la fonction est plus ‘’subjectivement orientée" que dans ceux dont la fonction est "objectivement orientée". While arbitration has traditionally been considered as a means to resolve private disputes, its role in disputes involving administrative contracts is a crucial question in administrative law. In brief, the three specific questions are (1) Can arbitrators or arbitral tribunals decide issues involving administrative law? and (2) Is there, or should there be, any limitation on the authority of arbitrators or arbitral tribunals? (3) Moreover, after the issue of an arbitration award, what role should the State play in the judicial review phase? The first question, the issue of arbitrability, is discussed in part 1 (FIRST PART: ARBITRABILITY). The second question will be discussed in part 2 (SECOND PART: PARTICULAR QUESTIONS OF ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS IN ARBITRATION PROCEDURE). Finally, on the question of what happens after the arbitration award, we will discuss judicial review in part 3 (THIRD PART: JUDICIAL REVIEW AND EXECUTION OF ARBITRATION AWARD). We compare legal systems between the four countries: in France, in Canada, in China and in Taiwan. We believe that an administrative contract, at least in its function and conception, is gradually becoming different from a private contract. Innovation with respect to administrative contracts will also reflect the concentration and function of the administrative litigation systems in each country. In addition, the “objective” or “subjective” function of administrative litigation will also affect the degree of arbitrability, as well as arbitration procedures. Taken together, arbitration will be more acceptable in systems whose function is more “subjectively oriented” than in those whose function is “objectively oriented". Finally, “the arbitration of administrative matters” traditionally has been an important question in administrative and arbitration law. In the future, we will continue to see it shine in the doctrine and jurisprudence of both the administrative and arbitration law fields.

Contract of employment was long acknowledged as a subject of genuine and voluntary agreement whose construction or determination should be founded on due notice of the parties thereto. Action for wrongful dismissal would lie if an employment was disturbed, interfered or meddled with, in defiance of the rights of the parties under the contract. The objective of this study was, among others, to determine what constituted a valid contract of employment and remedies for wrongful dismissal. The qualitative and documentary method of data collection was adopted by reference to relevant literature and statutory authorities. From the data gathered, and content analyzed, we found that no law could foreclose an employment from determination, nor could an irregular or wrongful dismissal stand. It was recommended, inter alia, that beside the need to repeal the Public Officers (Protection) Act, both the employer and employee should, in their official dealings, respect the sanctity of their contract, and permit reasonable future modifications thereto as could lawfully enhance the life of the contract and their legitimate desires.

In 2006 the governing body of the Hague Conference on Private International Law furnished the Secretariat with a mandate to conduct a series of feasibility studies on the development of an instrument, relating to the choice of law in international contracts. The outcome of these studies was largely successful, finding that there was a need for an instrument of this nature and additionally it would be welcomed by the international legal community. In 2009 the Permanent Bureau of the Hague Conference on Private International Law was invited to form a Working Group (WG) to draft a soft-law instrument affirming party autonomy in international contracts on an international level. The Hague Principles on Choice of Law in International Commercial Contracts (P) was, thus, born. The P were drafted by a panel of experts representing the majority of the world’s legal systems. The working group commentary (WGC will be used to refer to the commentary, whilst WG will be used to refer to refer to the working group itself) which provided the discussions in respect of, and the reasoning behind, the principles has been invaluable in writing this dissertation. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the compatibility of Australian and South African law with the P. One of the aims of the P mentioned specifically in the preamble is that these principles are to be used by countries as a model with which to develop their own rules of private international law. A study of the current law as it stands in comparison to the P marks the first step in this exercise, through finding where the law differs we can begin to bridge the disparity between a specific country’s legal system and that of the P. Should the P become an important part of the private international law discourse comparative studies such as this will become common-place. The fact that the principles were drafted as a soft-law instrument is in line with the growing world trend. The flexibility that is achieved through the use of a soft-law instrument may lead to greater legal certainty down the road as contracting parties and international lawyers alike become more familiar with the principles. This familiarity may lead to consensus among experts from around the world and eventually invite the prospect of a binding instrument being drafted

It is generally acknowledged that human capital intangibles are major value drivers in the new economy characterised by information and technology. The main purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange disclose information on human capital related issues. The study combined both qualitative (literature reviews and content analysis) and quantitative (survey questionnaire) methods to collect data of 60 corporate annual reports (CARs) of listed companies in South Africa from survey questionnaires administered on various categories of preparers and users of these CARs. The study made use of 91 human capital disclosure checklists developed from literature reviews for the purpose of data collection. The data analysis was done with the aid of Atlasti-a qualitative data analysis software and SPSS- a quantitative data analysis software. The findings show that majority of the items on the disclosure checklist are not yet disclosed in the CARs even though most of the items on the checklist are adjudged to be useful for organisational value creation. In view of the initial findings of this study, a human capital disclosure framework is recommended.

Substantive equality is a constitutional imperative, hence the need for strategies that attempt to realise it for the sake of genuine social reconstruction. The principle of equality runs through all other rights in the South African Constitution. Be that as it may, equality is an elusive concept, which makes its achievement an ambitious task. Nonetheless, there are strategies that attempt to bring to the fore the ‘substance’ of the concept in order to ensure the actual realisation of socio-economic benefits. Such strategies include, among others: social security, education, economic empowerment, skills development and affirmative action. This study will focus on the latter of these strategies, namely affirmative action. Although affirmative action is practised around the world, one of the (many) criticisms of the policy is that it fails to bring about substantive or structural change. In other words, it may change the racial and gender composition of the classroom or the workplace, but does not address the challenges that cause the disadvantages of marginalised groups in the first place. It is arguable that affirmative action has increased inequality in South Africa by benefiting the apex of the class structure and not the majority of the population living in abject poverty. This study develops a theoretical analysis of the link between status (race, sex and ethnicity) and socio-economic disadvantage, and the central question that the study addresses is the following: How can the policy of affirmative action be redesigned to ensure that it benefits the socio-economically disadvantaged? A secondary question that is investigated is whether affirmative action can contribute to the development of human capacities in the context of poverty alleviation. It is arguable that substantive equality facilitates the adoption of strategies (such as affirmative action) to address socio-economic inequality, poverty and social exclusion. The research suggests that a paradigm shift is necessary in order to reconceive of affirmative action as a policy that does not only focus on ensuring ‘equitable representation’ of disadvantaged groups in the workforce or the classroom, but also provides for the development of human capacities. This can be achieved if one adopts an expansive view of affirmative action and if one utilises class as one of the numerous criteria for determining the beneficiaries of the policy.

It is generally recognised that diversity of laws may act as a barrier to the development of trade, both at international and regional level. In a globalised era, trade is necessary for economic development and ultimately for the alleviation of poverty. Although the WTO has done extensive work towards the removal of tariff barriers, there is also a need to focus on addressing non-tariff barriers which include legal barriers to trade. Institutionalised legal harmonisation at an international level has provided the necessary impetus for the development of harmonised laws in the area of international trade. The creation of regional economic communities within the purview of the WTO has also given rise to the necessity of legal harmonisation to facilitate intra-regional trade. A number of regional economic communities and organisations have noted legal harmonisation as one of their areas of regional cooperation. This study focuses on the need to harmonise the law of international sale within the SADC region in order to facilitate cross-border trade. The study points out that the harmonisation of sales laws in SADC is important for the facilitation of both inter-regional and intra-regional trade with the aim of fostering regional integration, economic development and alleviating poverty. Although the necessity of harmonising sales laws has been identified, no effort to this end exists currently in the SADC region. This study addresses the mechanisms by which such harmonisation could be achieved by analysing three models which have been selected for this purpose, namely the CISG, the OHADA and the proposed CESL. The main issues addressed include whether SADC Member States should adopt the CISG, join OHADA, emulate the CESL or should use any of the other instruments as a model for creating a harmonised sales law for SADC. In conclusion, it is observed that SADC has its own institutional and operational mechanisms that require a process and instrument tailor-made for the unique needs of the region. It is recommended that SADC should create its own common sales law based on the CISG but taking into account lessons learnt from both the OHADA system and the CESL. A number of legislative, institutional and operational transformative and reform mechanisms are recommended to enable the creation of such a community law and ensure its uniform application and interpretation.

We examine three assumptions commonly held in the corporate reputation literature: i) reputation ratings of owners and investors are generally representative of all stakeholders; ii) stakeholders will generally provide a higher reputation rating to firms that emphasize corporate social responsibility versus firms that do not; and iii) profitability is the primary criterion of importance to all stakeholders when rating a firm’s reputation. Using an exploratory in-class exercise our findings suggest that: i) there are significant differences among stakeholder groups in their reputation ratings; ii) firms that emphasize corporate social responsibility are not rated more highly across all stakeholder groups, and iii) for all stakeholder groups, the ethicality criterion explained more of the variance in firms’ reputation ratings than the profitability criterion.

The role of African Union in the African integration project has remained a topical issue among scholars. Various views have been canvassed on how to strengthen African Union for a more effective regional integration in Africa. This paper examined the central role the African Diasporas can play in repositioning African Union for a sustainable regional integration in Africa. Its analysis of the situation was anchored on the mo-functionalist integration framework and applied essentially the secondary data gathering techniques. Among other recommendations, it suggested for the creation of a pan-African Diaspora Organization.

To regulate and facilitate are the main functions of legal rules. These purposes are achieved by a harmonised legal system by which the law becomes identical in numerous jurisdictions. The process to unify the law of sale internationally started in the 1920s and culminated, in 1988, in the implementation of the CISG. This Convention intends to provide clarity for most international sales transactions by regulating the formation of contracts, and the rights and obligations of the seller and the buyer resulting from the contract. The CISG has these days enjoyed much ratification and influenced a number of legislation reforms worldwide. Despite the role it played during the drafting process of the CISG, the DRC has not yet ratified it. Instead, the country continued to rely, until recently, on colonial legislations which had become out-dated, and inadequate to meet modern international sales contracts requirements. The situation appears to have been improved a year ago as the effect of the adoption of OHADA law whose Commercial Act is largely inspired by the CISG. Because the introduction of OHADA law in the DRC is very recent, this study intends to assess the current state of Congolese sales law by comparing it with the CISG and South African law, which is non-CISG but modernised. The comparative study aims at establishing whether current Congolese law, as amended by OHADA law, is sufficient or has shortcomings; if it has some, it aims to identify those shortcomings, and make suggestions for their improvements. After discussion, it has been discovered that the ratification of OHADA law has significantly improved Congolese domestic sales law. Given that there remain certain unresolved shortcomings in Congolese international sales law, however, the study ends by a proposal for the accession of the DRC to the CISG in order to fill them.

A substantial majority of non-agricultural workers in a developing country such as Cameroon engage in legal businesses below the governmental radar, that is, in the informal sector. Because that segment of the Sub-Saharan economy is critical to subsistence within the region, and because the financial crisis has expanded the informal sector in the Global North, developing economies’ experience with the informal sector is of world-wide relevance. Formal business laws do exist in the formal sector; however, trying to move informal-sector workers to the formal sector where these laws already offer some protection can disrupt the entrepreneurs’ ability to sustain themselves, and to contribute to the national economy. A pilot study in five Cameroonian markets is thus of general interest when it reveals that entrepreneurs there do not benefit from formal business laws, which in turn limits their ability to borrow and their willingness to lend. The same study also suggests that tax literature has interesting, non-coercive strategies to improve tax compliance in ways that may be applicable to facilitating the introduction of formal business laws to the informal sector, instead of forcing informal-sector workers into the formal sector. The tax-morale literature recommends deploying strategies of reciprocity, in addition to providing public goods and services—strategies that encourage compliance—instead of using governmental power to extract tax payments. Similarly, tax-based strategies can apply to business laws while informal-sector workers remain in the informal sector, even though the government’s posture vis-à-vis commercial actors is less direct than vis-à-vis taxpayers. The experience of Cameroon’s informal sector with formal tax law thus provides important insights on steps within the government’s control that would not only improve tax compliance, but would also bring formal business laws and their transaction-cost-reducing potential to the informal sector. The pro-business strategy is to apply tax-morale learning, which calls for government authorities to enter into a reciprocal relationship— respectful and communicative—with private parties and to focus on investing in basic infrastructure.

This thesis examines whether the net asset fair values of banks possess predictive ability for the banks’ future cash flows and earnings. This is an important issue considering the arguments for and against the wider use of fair value accounting for banks’ financial instruments and the claim by some that fair values during economic recessions (where markets may be illiquid) are irrelevant and largely unreliable. A number of studies have found that the explanatory power of bank fair values when compared to traditional historical cost are more value-relevant based on capital market reactions. However, there is a very limited literature on how bank fair values are related to the future performance (e.g. earnings and cash flow) of banks. This study fills this gap by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between U.S. bank fair value disclosures and banks’ future performance as measured by operating cash flows and earnings over a three-period future horizon. Furthermore, the thesis provides evidence on the relationship between bank fair values, in terms of the levels classification introduced during the 2008 global financial crisis, and the future performance of banks, thus showing whether market illiquidity affected the underlying relationships. The study examines two distinct periods. The first study period, 1996-2005, was based on annual data of banks with minimum total assets of $US150 million as of year 1996. The second study period from 2008-2010 (this period encompassed the global financial crisis period and also the levels classification of bank fair values according to SFAS 157), was based on quarterly data of banks with minimum total assets of $US150 million as of the first quarter of 2008. The thesis provides strong evidence that there is a predictive relationship between bank fair values and future bank performance. The evidence is strong during the first study period from 1996 to 2005 where the current net asset fair values of on-balance sheet financial instruments of banks were significantly associated with future operating cash flows and operating earnings of such banks over a three-year future time horizon. However, the predictive relationship between net asset bank fair values and operating cash flows is stronger than the predictive relationship between net asset bank fair values and operating earnings. In the second study period, from 2008 until 2010 the empirical results show strong evidence that there is a predictive relationship between level 1 and level 2 bank fair values and future operating cash flows. The findings from the empirical results were that the current quarter’s level 1 and level 2 net asset fair values of banks were significantly associated with the future quarters’ operating cash flows of such banks. The level 3 net asset fair values of such banks in most cases were not significantly associated with the banks’ future quarterly operating cash flows. The corresponding relationships for operating earnings were that the current quarter’s level 1 net asset fair values of banks were positively associated with the future quarters’ operating earnings of such banks. However, the level 2 net asset fair values of banks were negatively associated with the future quarters’ earnings of such banks. This result is in contrast to the results obtained when the predictive relationship between level 2 bank fair values and future operating cash flows was evaluated, where it is found that both level 1 and level 2 net asset bank fair values are positively related to future quarterly bank cash flows. Further empirical analysis showed that a possible reason behind this disparity was that there was a structural change in the relationship between bank operating cash flows and operating earnings over the course of the first and second study periods, where, in particular, for the second study period (which includes the period of the global financial crisis) there was a systematic downward bias in operating earnings relative to the operating cash flows of the sampled banks. This in turn makes operating earnings a poor proxy for operating cash flows during the second study period. The findings from this study provide confirmation that net asset fair values have predictive ability as argued by Ball (2008); Barth (2006b) and Tweedie (2008). The study findings that net asset fair values have predictive ability is consistent with the FASB’s view that the asset values shown in firm financial statements should communicate information about the potential future financial performance of the affected firms (FASB 2010:17). Furthermore, the study also confirms that objectively determined bank fair values based on market prices rather than model based bank fair values provide greater predictive value in relation to future performance as measured by operating cash flows. Lastly, this thesis showed that during the first study period (where there was no financial crisis) that bank size, capital adequacy and growth prospects, had little impact on the results obtained, while for the second study period, there were cases where bank size and bank capital ratios did have a significant impact on the predictive relationship between bank fair values and future cash flows. The study contributes to the fair value accounting and accounting standard-setting literature and highlights that fair values have predictive ability, especially with respect to future operating cash flows of banks, both during and outside of periods of financial crisis.

Alternative Dispute Resolution, or ’ADR’, offers parties in dispute an alternative to traditional court-based litigation, which is often seen as slow, costly and ineffective. ADR frequently involves a neutral third party who will settle or facilitate resolution of the dispute. This paper examines three common ADR mechanisms, adjudication, arbitration and mediation, and explores their relative advantages and disadvantages in different contexts.

Before examining the substance of the law it is necessary to discuss the contrast between law and practice. It is important to keep in mind that the letter of the law is sometimes not what is done in practice. This realisation is often referred to as the “law and society perspective.” Advocates of this perspective treat legal doctrine as more than just a closed system because they recognise that there are other external influences at play. Beyond the law, people are also influenced by other factors such as social roles, morals, religion and culture. For example, university researchers have an external incentive mechanism outside of IP law. Such researchers frequently prefer to publish their results and discoveries in academic journals rather than file for patents. A patent cannot be granted where there has been a publication. However the researchers are motivated by other incentives such as access to research funds and the attainment of professorship. The Law and Society perspective highlights the fact that the formal processes, which are provided for by the law are at times substituted by informal customs and understandings. An information technology (IT) firm that contributed to this paper by participating in an interview (Interviewee A), provided a good example of such an occurrence. Rather than use any of the formal IP modes of protection which are discussed in the following sections of this paper, ‘Interviewee A’ uses a very unorthodox strategy to protect their IP. They said: “we rely on employment contracts, code of conduct, and especially personal ethics and behaviour to protect our IP. We therefore have a company culture that encourages teamwork and cooperation”.

Mediation has been a part of New Zealand’s employment statutory framework in one form or another for over a century, and has been the first port of call for employment disputes under the current Employment Relations Act for nearly 15 years.¹ I have been working as a mediator in this context for almost seven years in more than 1,000 mediations. Lawyers are playing a significant part in the field of mediation, with a large number representing clients in this forum on a regular basis. In an evaluation of 100 of my mediations over a ten-month period, 85% of parties were legally represented. This rate is consistent with anecdotal reporting across the employment mediation service. Lawyer representation in mediation is not unique to the employment context. There are various mediation schemes provided for under many New Zealand statutes as well as a wide raft of non-statutory mediation occurring in numerous settings. In my experience as a mediator with human rights and leaky building mediations, as well as working as a lawyer in a large commercial law firm, I am aware lawyers are representing clients in many other areas of mediation as well. Although there is a significant amount of mediation occurring and a large number of lawyers regularly appearing in mediation, my experience is that the majority of lawyers act in mediation as if they were in litigation and take an adversarial approach. My thesis is that lawyers have not adapted effectively to mediation and taken on the role of mediation advocacy. This paper explores the topic by first describing, in Part II, what I observe as lawyers’ adversarial approach in mediation. It then looks at other research to assess whether this experience is reflective of a wider issue. It finds there is evidence to support my observations. Part III analyses why lawyers are operating in an adversarial way in mediation and proposes several reasons this may be the case. Part IV puts forward what I propose is appropriate mediation advocacy. It sets out the knowledge, roles and skills required from lawyers when representing clients in mediation. Part V suggests what might be done to assist a shift away from the common, adversarial approach to effective mediation advocacy. This paper is written within the context of employment mediation in New Zealand. However, it draws on research from different jurisdictions and areas of practice so the conclusions it comes to may have more general application. The topic is not whether lawyers should be in mediation. I am not arguing that lawyers do not have a part to play in mediation. A lawyer well versed in mediation advocacy can play a highly effective part in the process. Leonard Riskin, one of the key authors on the topic of lawyers in mediation, expresses this even more strongly, saying he believes lawyers’ involvement is fundamental to mediation’s success.² Further, this paper is focused on lawyers representing parties in mediation and does not consider lawyers as mediators.

This thesis identifies a gap in existing theories of corporate finance. This gap is an implication of a Keynesian-Minskian analysis of markets and market-based economies. From a founding theoretical perspective rooted in the view that markets are not reliably efficient the case is developed that past price trend extrapolation is an important factor in corporate financing decisions. At a macro-financial level, companies repurchase equity over periods of strong market rises, while increasing debt at the same time. During periods of sustained, substantial market decline debt is retired and large new equity issues occur. This change in corporate financing is implicitly expensive as relatively low prices are realised for the new stock issued at these times. These factors suggest that conventional theories of corporate financing decisions that rely on corporate rationality and optimisation do not provide a compelling fit with observations in the period 1980-2012. Moreover, inference to Minsky’s (1986) argument that companies are compelled through market declines to shore up their balance sheets provides a better fit with the evidence. These arguments form the basis for the development of the ‘extrapolative expectations’ theory of corporate finance. The second major development in this thesis draws on the theoretical development outlined above to create market movement description and prediction models. These models operate on data drawn from the US Standard & Poors 500 index over the period 1980-2012. Two primary models are developed using binomial logistic regressions. The dichotomous dependent variables are drawn as quarters of market rise (1) or no rise (0), and market falls (1) or no fall (0), respectively for the ‘buy’ model and the ‘sell’ model. Variables tested and those found to add to an explanation of the dependent variables include: corporate debt flows, corporate equity flows, corporate dividend flows, interest rates, market volumes, and historical market levels. Each variable is tested for up to ten lags (two-and-a-half years). Collectively, the variables add to our understanding of those factors influencing (or at the least, signalling) market levels, enabling quarter ahead market forecasts to be made with greater accuracy than arises from an assumption of a random walk. This conclusion crystallises the view that company macro-financial flows and prices are an important cause or signal of future market direction.